Atascadero, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

957
FXUS66 KLOX 291849
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1049 AM PST Wed Jan 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...29/937 AM.

A dry but cool weather pattern will continue through Thursday as
low pressure remains in place across the region. Warmer weather is
expected for the weekend. The next chance for rain is next Tuesday
or Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...29/313 AM.

Very non dramatic weather on tap for the three day short term. Srn
Ca will remain under the influence of the large slow moving upper
low to the east today. A ridge will move into the state on
Thursday and then remain in place on Friday. At the sfc the flow
will be on the weak side generally oscillating between -1 in the
mornings and +1 in the afternoons.

This morning for areas south of Pt Conception there is a 4000 ft
moist layer with no real marine capping inversion. This has
allowed a rather haphazard patch work of low clouds to form. There
is a more well established marine layer north of Pt Conception and
the Central Coast and Paso Robles area are socked in with low
clouds. Some area will be slow to clear this morning but by
afternoon there will be sunny skies everywhere. There will only be
1 to 2 degrees of warming today and max temps will remain well
below normals with cst/vly temps coming in only one or two degrees
either side of 60.

It will be another cold night tonight with most areas away from
the csts seeing lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The marine layer
will be better established and most of the coasts and many of the
vlys (including the Salinas river vly) will be covered with a
blanket of low clouds.

Again skies will be sunny after the low clouds dissipate on
Thursday. Despite the slightly higher hgts max temps will not
change much and will remain many degrees below normal.

Mdls keeping the low clouds out the of areas south of Pt
Conception due to a slight up tick in offshore flow. This is
pretty low confidence forecast and would not be surprised at all
to see some clouds develop. Higher hgts and slightly stronger
offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to
the area. Max temps will mostly end up in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/325 AM.

An atmospheric river will set up over the upper half of the
state. There is a 20 percent chc that it will sag far enough south
to bring light rain to SLO county. The most likely scenario,
however, is just cloudy skies for SLO/SBA counties and partly
cloudy skies for VTA/LA counties. Look for two days of warming (3
to 6 degrees Saturday and 2 to 4 degrees Sunday) to bring max
temps into the 70s for many areas. Otherwise, increasing northwest
flow will generate some breezy winds along the Central Coast,
southwest Santa Barbara County, the mountains, and Antelope
Valley.

More clouds and stronger onshore flow will bring several degrees
of cooling to the area Monday. The slight chc of rain will also
continue across the Central Coast.

Looking ahead both the EC and GFS both operational mdls and their
respective ensembles have backed off some on the possible storm in
the middle of next week. If this system does come together it will
be warmer and have more water to work with so it does bear
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1707Z.

At 1609Z at KLAX, there was a 3500 ft deep moist layer and no
inversion.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs due to uncertainty in
lowest minimum flight cat and timing of flight cat changes. There
is a 20% chance Central Coast sites do not clear until at least
22Z. MVFR cigs and vsbys are most likely at most sites, but IFR
to LIFR conds are possible, with highest chances at KPRB, KBUR,
and KVNY tonight. There is a 20% chance for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY
to become VLIFR, most likely after 12Z. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off +/- 4 hours and minimum flight cat may be off
by one cat.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs
will not arrive tonight until at least 07Z. There is a 30% chance
for OVC007 to OVC010 cigs. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance that cigs
will arrive as early as 06Z tonight. Low confidence in minimum
flight cat, there is a 30% chance for LIFR conds and a 20% chance
for VLIFR conds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...29/931 AM.

In the Outer Waters, there is a 40% chance for Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds to develop this afternoon through late
tonight from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. There
is a 30% chance of SCA conds during the afternoon/eve hours Thu in
all outer waters zones. Chances for more widespread SCA level
winds increases for Friday night through the weekend.

In the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is a 20% chance of
SCA conds during the afternoon/eve hours today and Thu, with a 30%
chance late Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, SCA conds are not
expected thru Sun night.

In the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40%
chance of SCA level winds in western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel this afternoon into tonight, and a 30-40% chance of SCA
conds there Thu afternoon/eve. Chances for SCA level winds
increases from late Friday through the weekend, with higher
confidence in late Saturday through Sunday having the best chances
for SCA winds getting into the Santa Barbara Channel and the
Southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...DB/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox